Najee Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to garner 14.3 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller part of his team's run game this year (61.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (78.8%).
Najee Harris has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (51.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
Najee Harris's ground effectiveness (3.59 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (10th percentile among RBs).

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