Najee Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 58.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 16.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has picked up 63.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (92nd percentile).
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive ends profile as the 9th-worst collection of DEs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be a less important option in his team's run game this week (66.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (78.8% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Najee Harris's running efficiency (3.68 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (17th percentile among running backs).