Najee Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing TD

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-362).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -325 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -362.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Najee Harris has garnered 55.0% of his team's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-most touchdowns in football (1.33 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-least run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 40.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
Najee Harris has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in the league among RBs (1st percentile).

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