Najee Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 29, 2022 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
Najee Harris has earned 60.6% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 39.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down just 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated some form of misdirection on just 35.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in football), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.