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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 130.5 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.

The Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (37.4 per game) this year.

In this game, Najee Harris is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 76th percentile among RBs with 3.1 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.4% pass rate.

Najee Harris's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 84.7% to 77.3%.

The Ravens pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.5%) vs. RBs this year (79.5%).

The Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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