Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 15, 2024 4:21 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
With an elite 10.4% Target% (79th percentile) this year, Najee Harris stands as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the league.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.7%) vs. running backs this year (79.7%).
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.