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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.

At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

With an elite 10.4% Target% (79th percentile) this year, Najee Harris stands as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.7%) vs. running backs this year (79.7%).

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

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