Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 10, 2024 10:56 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are projected by our trusted projection set to call 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.6 plays per game.
Najee Harris's 16.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 10.0.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 50.8% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
Najee Harris's 76.2% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a noteable regression in his receiving talent over last year's 84.7% mark.
The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in football this year in defending receivers.

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