Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 19, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-154/+116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers have been the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 75.4% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 3.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has been an integral part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 9.5% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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