Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
With a top-tier 53.9% Snap% (76th percentile) this year, Najee Harris places as one of the running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
Najee Harris's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 77.9% to 81.2%.

Favors Under

Right now, the 10th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.2 per game) this year.
The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (77.4%) versus RBs this year (77.4%).
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Indianapolis's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL.

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