Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+117/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a heavy 11.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Najee Harris has been a much smaller part of his team's passing game this season (9.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.2%).
Najee Harris's receiving skills have diminished this season, notching a mere 2.6 yards per game compared to 4.1 last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a mere 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.