Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.1 plays per game.
Najee Harris has run a route on 66.0% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a measly 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.