Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+260/-375).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -350 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -375.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 3.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among RBs.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in football (84.5%) vs. running backs this year (84.5%).
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris's 16.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 21.9.
Najee Harris's play as a receiver has declined this year, compiling just 2.6 yards per game vs 4.2 last year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.