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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +210 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.9 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 2.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among RBs.

The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Completion% in the league (86.6%) to RBs this year (86.6%).

The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Najee Harris has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (46.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (65.6%).

Najee Harris's play as a receiver has tailed off this year, averaging just 2.3 yards per game compared to 4.2 last year.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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