Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +210 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 6th-worst safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has been used less as a potential target this season (46.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (65.6%).
Najee Harris's pass-catching performance declined this year, notching just 2.5 yards per game compared to 4.2 last year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in football since the start of last season.

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