Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+122/-162).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers have been the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 3.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 78.6% to 86.4%.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Najee Harris's 15.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 22.4.
Najee Harris's pass-catching performance worsened this season, notching a mere 3.0 yards per game vs 4.1 last season.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (72.5%) versus running backs this year (72.5%).

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