Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 6, 2024

Updated Oct 13, 2024 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Steelers this year (a whopping 59.8 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Najee Harris's 12.8% Target Rate this year illustrates a noteable boost in his pass game utilization over last year's 6.5% mark.
Najee Harris has accumulated quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).
Najee Harris's receiving effectiveness has improved this year, accumulating 7.25 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 5.31 figure last year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 49.8% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Raiders, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year.
When talking about air yards, Najee Harris ranks in just the 25th percentile among running backs this year, accruing just -4.0 per game.
Najee Harris's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 84.7% to 73.9%.

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