Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 22, 2024 8:07 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
Najee Harris has accrued a staggering 1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not seem like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (38.0) to running backs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 47.7% of their downs: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Steelers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 56.4 plays per game.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Pittsburgh Steelers grades out as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season.
Najee Harris profiles as one of the worst running backs in the league at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a measly 6.30 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 16th percentile.

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