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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-121/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are projected by our trusted projection set to call 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.

The Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.6 plays per game.

Najee Harris's 16.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 10.0.

Najee Harris has accrued many more adjusted receiving yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).

Najee Harris's receiving effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 6.76 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 5.32 mark last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 50.8% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.

Najee Harris's 76.2% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a noteable regression in his receiving talent over last year's 84.7% mark.

The Commanders defense has conceded the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 18.0) to RBs this year.

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