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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

With a top-tier 53.9% Snap% (76th percentile) this year, Najee Harris places as one of the running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

In regards to air yards, Najee Harris grades out in the towering 78th percentile among running backs this year, accruing an astounding 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

Najee Harris's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 77.9% to 81.2%.

Najee Harris's pass-game effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.18 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 4.39 rate last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 10th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.2 per game) this year.

The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Indianapolis's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL.

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