Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-107/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
In this week's game, Najee Harris is projected by the model to slot into the 75th percentile when it comes to running backs with 2.7 targets.
Najee Harris has been a key part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 8.6% this year, which puts him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
In regards to air yards, Najee Harris ranks in the lofty 82nd percentile among running backs this year, averaging a whopping 1.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
Najee Harris's 7.39 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season conveys a material gain in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season's 5.9% mark.

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Steelers grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
This year, the formidable Cleveland Browns defense has given up a paltry 75.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL.
This year, the imposing Browns pass defense has surrendered the least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing running backs: a mere 4.9 YAC.