Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-113/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Najee Harris has been among the best pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 24.0 yards per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Najee Harris has posted a measly -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 8th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris's 17.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 22.4.
Najee Harris's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 4.20 yards-per-target vs a 4.96 figure last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

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