Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+105/-138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 2.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has posted a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Najee Harris's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, notching 6.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 5.42 figure last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the most receiving yards per game in the league (47.0) vs. running backs this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Najee Harris has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (46.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (65.6%).
Najee Harris has accumulated a lot fewer receiving yards per game (12.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).
Najee Harris has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL among running backs, averaging a measly 4.28 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 8th percentile.

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