Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Najee Harris has posted a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Najee Harris's talent in picking up extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, averaging 6.73 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 5.42 figure last year.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (43.0) to running backs this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 123.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Najee Harris's 14.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 21.9.
Najee Harris has put up a lot fewer receiving yards per game (12.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).
Najee Harris's pass-game efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 4.05 yards-per-target vs a 4.81 figure last season.

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