Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2024

Updated Nov 22, 2024 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-102/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The projections expect the Steelers as the most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.9% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.
The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher rush volume.

Favors Under

When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Cleveland's LB corps has been outstanding this year, projecting as the best in football.

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