Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Najee Harris to accrue 15.6 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Out of all running backs, Najee Harris ranks in the 92nd percentile for carries this year, taking on 63.6% of the workload in his offense's ground game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football last year at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to run on 40.4% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Baltimore's unit has been great this year, ranking as the best in football.

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