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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Carries
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-123/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -111.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 43.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 17.4 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.

Najee Harris has been a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this season (64.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (78.8%).

The Buffalo Bills defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year with their run defense.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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