Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 15.8 carries in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

Najee Harris has been much less involved in his offense's run game this year (59.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (78.8%).
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best DE corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.