Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+106/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to total 13.4 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 123.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be a much smaller part of his team's run game this week (49.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.0% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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