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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Carries
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.4 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 16.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.

The Cincinnati Bengals defensive ends profile as the 9th-worst collection of DEs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Steelers are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be a less important option in his team's run game this week (66.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (78.8% in games he has played).

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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