Mitchell Wilcox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Mitchell Wilcox

NFL · Player Props

Mitchell Wilcox

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Mitchell Wilcox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mitchell Wilcox to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game this week (7.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.1% in games he has played).
Mitchell Wilcox has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among TEs, catching a stellar 86.7% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 84th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Completion% in football (75.8%) to tight ends this year (75.8%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Mitchell Wilcox has been among the bottom pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a measly 1.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 19th percentile among TEs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebackers project as the 10th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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