Mitchell Trubisky TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Mitchell Trubisky

NFL · Player Props

Mitchell Trubisky

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 23, 2022 2:50 AM UTC

Analysis

Mitchell Trubisky TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+210/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.7% red zone pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.79 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Mitchell Trubisky has attempted a measly 10.0 passes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 5th percentile among QBs.
Mitchell Trubisky has been among the worst touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.25 per game while checking in at the 5th percentile.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers profile as the best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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