Mitchell Trubisky Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Mitchell Trubisky

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 23, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Mitchell Trubisky Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Mitchell Trubisky to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (12.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Mitchell Trubisky has averaged just 0.8 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, one of the smallest rates in football among quarterbacks (8th percentile).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Mitchell Trubisky has been among the worst QBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging just 0.18 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 22nd percentile.