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Mitchell Trubisky

Mitchell Trubisky Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets

Mitchell Trubisky Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+640/-1450).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.7% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.

Opposing teams have rushed for the most touchdowns in the league (1.55 per game) versus the New York Jets defense since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated some form of misdirection on just 35.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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