Miles Sanders Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Miles Sanders

NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Miles Sanders Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+145/-201).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +148 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 5th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 45.3% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (41.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (30.8% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

Favors Under

The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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