Miles Sanders Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Miles Sanders

NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Miles Sanders Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+166/-231).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -188 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -231.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The Philadelphia Eagles have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-least TDs in the league (0.79 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends rank as the 5th-best group of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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