Miles Sanders Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Miles Sanders Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their normal approach.
The projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Panthers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league last year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
In regards to air yards, Miles Sanders grades out in the towering 81st percentile among RBs last year, totaling a staggering 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.7% pass rate.
The Carolina O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
With a poor 71.1% Adjusted Catch Rate (9th percentile) last year, Miles Sanders stands among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs.
Miles Sanders profiles as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the league when it comes to running backs, averaging a lowly 4.01 adjusted yards-per-target last year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.
Miles Sanders profiles as one of the weakest running backs in the league at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a lowly 5.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 19th percentile.