Mike Williams Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Williams

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 16, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Williams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+128/-169).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +137 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.3 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
Mike Williams has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 19.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 5th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.