Mike Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Mike Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Mike Thomas

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-108/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Mike Thomas has gone out for fewer passes this year (30.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (16.9%).
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Completion% in football (68.7%) to WRs this year (68.7%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mike Thomas has been among the weakest wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging just 0.7 receptions per game while grading out in the 9th percentile among WRs.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.

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