Mike Thomas Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mike Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Mike Thomas

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Nov 1, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+405/-871).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +417 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +405.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Mike Thomas has put up far more air yards this season (16.0 per game) than he did last season (9.0 per game).
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in the league (69.1%) vs. wideouts this year (69.1%).
The Cleveland Browns safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
Mike Thomas's 8.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in the league: 20th percentile for wide receivers.
Mike Thomas ranks in the 1st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging just 0.00 per game.

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