Mike Gesicki Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 7:18 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-381).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -381.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 64.9% of their chances: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in football in the red zone (62.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.
In regards to air yards, Mike Gesicki grades out in the lofty 85th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a staggering 34.0 per game.
Mike Gesicki has been in the 79th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) with an impressive 25.8 figure this year.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 125.5 offensive plays run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
Our trusted projections expect Mike Gesicki to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing attack near the goal line in this game (12.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).
The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded a puny 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 10th-lowest rate in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.