Mike Gesicki Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+376/-456).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% red zone pass rate.
In regards to air yards, Mike Gesicki ranks in the lofty 83rd percentile among tight ends last year, accumulating an astounding 34.0 per game.
Last year, the shaky Buccaneers pass defense has yielded a whopping 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 8th-highest rate in the NFL.
The Buccaneers defense has yielded the 2nd-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.71 per game last year.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their standard game plan.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mike Gesicki ranks as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in just 70.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 19th percentile.

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