Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
Mike Gesicki's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 66.3% to 78.1%.
This year, the feeble Dolphins pass defense has allowed a staggering 78.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 10th-worst rate in football.

Favors Under

When talking about pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the best in football.

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