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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by the projections to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.

Mike Gesicki's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 66.3% to 75.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.1% pass rate.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.7 per game) this year.

The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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