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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-151/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Mike Gesicki has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this season, staying in the game for 52.9% of snaps vs just 42.6% last season.

The Cowboys safeties grade out as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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