Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 66.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mike Gesicki has run a route on 55.7% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 75th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 66.3% to 89.0%.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The New York Jets linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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