Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+114/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to garner 3.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 75.1%.
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
Mike Gesicki's 23.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 42.4.

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