Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +146 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to notch 3.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 83.7%.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (85.3%) versus TEs this year (85.3%).

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential target this year (54.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.7%).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

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