Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Mike Gesicki has been among the top pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.9 receptions per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.
Mike Gesicki's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 100.0%.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Mike Gesicki's 12.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 42.4.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.