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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to accrue 4.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among TEs.

Mike Gesicki's 38.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.

The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (63.2%) to TEs since the start of last season (63.2%).

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