Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+165/-234).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -194 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -234.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
Mike Gesicki has been among the top pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 6th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be much less involved in his team's passing offense this week (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.5% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (67.5%) to TEs since the start of last season (67.5%).

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